What have the big three auction houses announced in the last month of spring?

Collectors and investors are eagerly awaiting the Genevan auctions scheduled this month of May by Phillips, Sotheby's and Christie's. Yet there is still some apprehension surrounding the first major auctions of the year. Last year's pre-owned watch market decline hasn't been magicked away. Why don't we take a look at the trump cards that the auctioneers have up their sleeves to attract potential buyers this spring?

Phillips to Discover New Favorites

The favorite to fetch the top price at Phillips' Geneva Watch Auction: XXI is clearly the unique Patek Philippe Ref. 3448 "Padellone" perpetual calendar model. As is often the case, this model's official reference is followed by "the Only One Known" in the lot's title.

The model's unofficial nickname "Padellone" refers to the appearance of its case and can be translated from Italian as "big frying pan". Believe it or not, this case looked daring in the 1950s and 1960s: a whole 37.5 mm in diameter with uncompromisingly sharp, unrounded edges.

This head-turning case also housed one of the most beautiful advanced movements: Cal. 27-460 Q (the most highly evolved version of Patek's famous 12-600 movement). The world's first serially produced automatic perpetual calendar wristwatch is still considered one of the most accurate with exemplary finishing. But what makes this second series Ref. 3448 rare?

A decent number of them were apparently made from 1962 through 1982, and they aren't rare at all. It's all down to that fact that the casemaker who made this example was Antoine Gerlach, who used pink gold instead of yellow gold for reasons that remain unknown, and instead of the usual winding crown depicting the Calatrava Cross, the casemaker left a crown with the two back-to-back letters "P", known as the "Double-P" crown.

When the model first resurfaced on the re-owned watch market in 2011, it immediately sparked a heated debate: if Ref. 3448 was never made in pink gold, this piece must either be custom-made or a complete forgery. But almost a year later, historians and researchers finally got to the bottom of it.

Yes, there had in fact been one such model, apparently made by mistake in 1968, which was sent to the Uruguayan retailer Freccero, who sold it as soon as it arrived in February. The organizers expect a fierce battle for the unique watch, which is why their estimated sales price begins at CHF 2,000,000 and goes all the way up to CHF 4,000,000.

By the way, another watch offered by Phillips in Geneva also testifies to the popularity of this case shape and tone: the Rolex Ref. 8171 "Padellone" from 1950. This case really suits the triple calendar with a moon-phase display. The "frying pan" for Rolex was made by Favre-Perret, a small family case-manufacturing business from La-Chaux-de-Fonds.

The model was in production for a relatively short run of just four years, from 1949 through 1953. "Padellones" were mainly made in steel, yellow gold versions were encountered more rarely, and rose-gold ones are considered true rarities.

To put this in perspective, Phillips has only sold 19 models since the auction house began holding watch auctions in 2015, and only two of them had rose-gold cases. This model is also fresh to the pre-owned watch market. Its current consignor acquired it recently and out of the blue in Sicily, where the watch had lived for almost three quarters of a century with its first owner. It's been given a cautious estimate of CHF 350,000 - 700,000.

The timepiece that could become the second most expensive sold at this auction is a unique clock on a hardstone plinth: Cartier's Portico Mystery Clock no. 3. Overall, Cartier made six of these clocks between 1923 and 1925, but each of these pieces is unique in its own right.

The case is made in the shape of a portal between rectangular columns made of rose quartz. The top is made of black onyx, and needless to say, all of the stones have gold-plated edges and inserts. It is hung with a gold watch capsule on a rose-gold chain comprising four chunky links. It has a faceted rock-crystal dial and a wide mother-of-pearl bezel to conceal the mysterious clock movement.

The dial's large Roman numerals are encrusted with diamonds. This masterpiece fuses the very trendy style of Art Deco back in those days with the no less sought-after Asian motifs depicting dragons, traditional Chinese "Fo" lions/dogs symbolizing protection, and jade-setting. Anyone who acquires such creations by Cartier doesn't do so with the aim of making an investment.

They appreciate these clocks themselves. That's why it's extremely rare for them to resurface at an auction. The last time that a Cartier Portico Mystery Clock appeared at an auction was in 1996. We think that it won't be seen again for another thirty years. The consignor has set strict conditions for its sale: it cannot be sold for less than CHF 2,000,000.

If the clock fails to raise this sum, it'll be withdrawn from the auction. But we don't think it'll have any trouble finding a new owner. Worst case scenario, the iconic maison will be happy to house another unique exhibit in their museum or the interior of one of their boutiques.

Like other auctions, Phillips' Geneva Watch Auction: XXI looks set to sell a large selection of interior clocks. There's another unique model being offered for sale on similarly strict conditions, only at a lower starting price of CHF 1,000,000: F.P. Journe's X THA For Breguet Pendule Sympathique no. 1.

This is a good time to mention that Breguet is marking its 250th anniversary this year, so it would be reasonable to expect to see interior clocks by Swatch Group's flagship brand at every major auction. And by the way, this can also largely explain the artificial price spike for Breguet's timepieces in the second half of last year, when some models unexpectedly sold for a dozen times their estimates.

Well, collectors and investors must justifiably be hoping to ride a continuing wave of inflated prices. This is a great opportunity to offload deadweight in collections. Now let's focus on lot no. 18. It's a stunning, monumental clock with a détent escapement constant-force system, moon-phase display, equation of time, indications for the date, day of the week, and the month, plus a thermometer — all housed on a brass base with gold panels.

And it also has a second dial for the lunar calendar, which can be lifted to reveal a capsule for temporarily storing a wristwatch tourbillon with a moon-phase display and power reserve indication in a 36-mm yellow-gold case. Why is this house-sharing useful?

Potentially more accurate table clocks set the right tone for wristwatches thanks to a well-known law of physics, which states that two oscillating systems placed close together are bound to begin to oscillate at the same frequency, and their timekeeping will become more stable and accurate in unison. This interior clock also winds the wristwatch.

François-Paul Journe always looked up to the ingenious Abraham-Louis Breguet. So much so that he even tried to acquire the rights to revive the brand in the early 1980s, but he obviously couldn't compete with another fan of Breguet, who happened to be the founder and head of Swatch Group, Mr. Nicolas Hayek Sr.

Journe had dreamed of recreating Abraham-Louis Breguet's two main inventions based on modern technology ever since he was a child: the tourbillon and "Sympathique" table clock. And Journe did it in 1991 in his early thirties. Independently, he would have lacked the financial and technical means to create such a complicated clock back then.

So he received help from THA (Techniques Horlogères Appliqueés). And now people have the chance to acquire this wonderful watch-housing clock. Could the Genevan sales go without one of the main pillars of the pre-owned watch market: the Ref. 6264 Rolex Cosmograph Daytona "Paul Newman Lemon"!? Of course not.

Moreover, fans of this iconic model are in for a real treat: this is another extremely rare fresh-to-market chronograph model, sporting a yellow dial with a brown outer track and counters. The counters feature particularly vivid printed numerals. The tone of these dark counters and track have also been unofficially nicknamed "tropical." Up until now, only ten of these models were known in circulation among collectors.

But now another one has been added to this golden exchange fund. You can even list a known range of serial numbers:
 

2'357'384,

2'357'385,

2’357’393 (the present example),

2’357’409,

2'357'419,

2'357'421,

2’357’442,

2'357'452,

2’357’455,

2'357'468,

2’357’479.

This specific piece is known to have had only one owner. He purchased the chronograph in 1973 and wore it regularly and quite carefully for almost a quarter of a century. But the owner stopped wearing it when he learned how rare and valuable it is, and kept it in a family safe.

And this model with the serial number 2’357’393 also has a special feature that makes it unique: while tropical tracks and counters have faded over time on the other chronographs, it's the opposite on this one, where the color is a darker deep brown, almost black.

Considering all of these circumstances, the organizers have given the watch an estimate of CHF 600,000 - 1,200,000. We believe that the pre-sale estimate is far too cautious, even when you consider that this is a world premiere on the pre-owned watch market. The sale of a legendary pocket watch promises to be another big event on the pre-owned watch market: A. Lange & Söhne's Grande Complication.

It's a minute repeater with Grande et Petite Sonnerie strikeworks, a perpetual calendar, and split-seconds chronograph, housed in a large pink-gold hunter case measuring 62 mm. The first model from this series of watches dedicated to the dawn of the 20th century was launched in 1901, and the ninth and last piece was made in 1928.

This specific model was the third, finished in 1908. The watch isn't just historically significant for the Saxon watchmakers from Glashütte. Practically all of the examples are believed to have been sold to very well-off individuals, including European nobility. So the history of these watches is just waiting to be discovered and revealed to the public.

The base movement used by the watchmaker in Glashütte was a Piguet ébauche. But all that remains of the original is its mainplate, measuring 19 lignes in diameter, as the modules and almost all of the components appear to have been remade.

The same can be said of the movement's architecture. This watch is also notable for its very rare appearance at auctions. The last time was on May 11, 1987 at the Ineichen, Zürich. So the present example could well sell for in and around its estimate of CHF 500,000 - 1,000,000. Other models at this sale worth mentioning include the current record holder for the world's thinnest mechanical watch: Konstantin Chaykin's ThinKing.

This watch's nickel-alloy case measures a mere 1.65 mm in height. The full name of lot no. 15 is ThinKing & PalanKing. PalanKing is no ordinary carrier case: it has an integrated winding mechanism that can convert the ThinKing into an automatic movement according to the same principle as Breguet's Sympathique table clock mentioned in this article.

Inside the actual record-holding watch, the independent Russian watchmaker essentially invented a new pawl and flat mainspring system built into the barrel-arbor for the energy source, and a new escapement with two balance wheels, where the first works with the lever escapement, while the hairspring is installed in the second.

We don't think that this watch will be met with a huge amount of excitement by the public. After all, ultra-thin watches aren't the most reliable, and they're practically stripped back when it comes to the finishing on the movement, so they tend to be unpopular with collectors. With this in mind, the estimate of CHF 350,000 - 700,000 looks very optimistic.

Exceptional Christie's

Rare Watches Featuring Stories in Time: A Collection of Exceptional Watches — the auction scheduled by the British auction house Christie's for May 12 has a tantalizing name, but the selection of top lots is noticeably less diverse than the variety offered by Phillips Auction House.

According to the opinion of the sale's organizers, the top lot should be a famous ultra-light and ultra-durable skeletonized tourbillon from 2019:  Richard Mille's RM27-01 FQ in the extremely rare case material of white quartz. Despite the watch's imposing case size at 46 mm × 38 mm and its thick, robust strap, the model still weighs a mere 18.83 grams.

Moreover, the movement weighs a stunning 3.5 grams. It's suspended in the case by braided micro-cables that are 0.35 mm thick. This suspension system of sorts allows the watch to withstand monstrous acceleration forces, all the way up to 5000G. Nadal put the watch to the test himself, who played a full season wearing it. In 2019, Richard Mille launched just five models in white quartz.

Besides Nadal, they're worn by the rappers Post Malone and Jay-Z. The original RM-27-01 tourbillon limited to 50 pieces priced at USD 740,000 had a case made of carbon nanotubes and sold out in an instant. So the organizers of the sale aren't asking for that much for such an exclusive watch at its auction debut, who have given it an estimate of CHF 1,000,000 – CHF 2,000,000.

But we still think that the most expensive lot will end up being the extremely rare Patek Philippe Ref. 2497 perpetual calendar from 1953. Its pink-gold case is also what makes this watch rare, made by Emile Vichet. Before this watch was discovered in Spain last summer, the experts had no idea it even existed. Everyone thought that there were only six pink-gold cases made by Vichet in the very first series.

Its pink-gold case is also what makes this watch rare, made by Emile Vichet. Before this watch was discovered in Spain last summer, the experts had no idea it even existed. Everyone thought that there were only six pink-gold cases made by Vichet in the very first series.And now a seventh has been found. All in all, 115 of these watches were made in different case versions between 1951 and 1963: mainly in yellow gold.

The watch also has a rare movement: Caliber 27SC Q with central seconds and a manual winding system. The Patek Philippe manufacture released 179 of these movements. It's not hard to do the math: if 115 of these movements were used in Ref. 2497, then the remaining 64 units went to the sporty Ref. 2438/1 sister model with a water-resistant case.

A pink-gold Ref. 2497 was sold almost exactly a year ago at Christie's Rare Watches in May. Back then, the buyer paid CHF 1,497,000 for the watch. The organizers clearly based their estimate on this sum, so they must believe that it will sell for CHF 1,000,000 – CHF 2,000,000 now.  The organizers predict that the third most expensive lot will be another model by Richard Mille: the ultraflat Ferrari Ref. RM UP-01 No. 94⁄150.

This was still the world's thinnest watch only last year in a titanium case measuring 51 mm to 39 mm in diameter and 1.75 mm in height, but it hadn't even held the record for three months when Konstantin Chaykin revealed his 1.65 mm ThinKing. You could say that this model is hot off the press, as it was launched only recently. Richard Mille's production capacity is certainly much bigger than Chaykin's.

Engineers from Audemars Piguet Le Locle helped Mille with development. Over 6,000 hours went into developing the watch, plus several years of testing. Almost the entire team of designers and engineers from Scuderia Ferrari's paddocks were involved in the trials. Mille managed to create a reliable escapement — a significantly visually altered and advanced version of the Swiss anchor escapement.

To lower the height of the balance spring and mainspring barrel, Mille decided to remove some of the thickest yet most important components of the escapement, like the guard pin and safety roller. Their function is performed directly on the anchor fork Mille invented. So energy is transferred directly without any go-betweens or excessive energy loss due to friction.

According to its creator, the balance is directly equipped with six adjustable weights, now secured even more reliably and safely than usual, making it more shock-resistant. Chaykin himself doesn't even know how many ThinKing watches he'll make yet, whereas Mille set his limit at a staggering 150 pieces.

But judging by the estimate for this watch, the organizers of the sale haven't been seduced by the tempting promises of reliability, durability, and accuracy. They estimate it will raise CHF 700,000 - 1,600,000. In other words, it'll be good if the watch sells for its retail price, but no one would be surprised to see a 50 % discount. This is especially true given the precedent set last year. But yet again, something tells us that another lot assigned the same upper estimate (CHF 800,000 - 1,600,000) will fare much better.

After all, the chronograph we're talking about is a Rolex Daytona Ref. 6264 with a "Paul Newman John Player Special" dial  from 1971 in a rare 14-karat yellow-gold case on a matching yellow-gold bracelet. Collectors love Ref. 6264 so much for the sheer beauty of the watch, plus it's the rarest of all Dayatonas.

Moreover, here we're talking about a case made of 14-karat gold, primarily made for the American market, where hallmark 585 gold is more affordable. But this yellow gold looks so good on the dial design that fans named after Paul Newman and also describe as either "Lemon" yellow or black "John Player Special" dial for its similarity to the black cigarette packs of the same name with gold lettering.

This reference number was only released for a three-year run between 1969 and 1972. The present example is particularly rare because it has a "T Swiss T" marking on its dial, which tells us that the lume on the hands and indexes contains tritium. Another thing that makes this example rare is its bracelet with riveted links, made in the United States by partner company C&I.

But in addition to the Ref. 6264, fans and collectors of Rolex watches are just as interested in the fate of a model first introduced in 2023, which paid tribute to the 100th anniversary of the famous 24 Hours of Le Mans endurance race. The model showcased in 2023 famously appeared as a VIP-exclusive, invitation-only model and in regular watch outlets around the same time. 

The only catch was that you could officially purchase the watch for USD 50,000 from Rolex off-catalog, and naturally you had to be a big friend to make the pre-order list, while the price was exactly seven times higher at USD 350,000 if buying from unofficial sellers. The organizers of the auction clearly feel that the name Rolex Daytona "Le Mans" no longer makes would-be owners go weak at the knees, so they've given this bestseller a more than modest estimate of 150,000 – CHF 250,000.

Unprepared Sotheby's

While preparing for the season's first big auctions, scheduled for May 11, the largest auction house clearly encountered unforeseen difficulties. How else can you explain why the catalog for Important Watches: Part I was published not two months ahead of the sale, but only two weeks before the start?

Then again, the announcements on the official website could give you the impression that they've got everything under control, as the exhibition of the most attractive lots was welcomed in major cities around the world. The build-up made it even more disappointing to see the final version of the catalog published at the very end of April.

Draw your own conclusions: the lot with the most potential to become the most expensive, estimated to go for CHF 700,000 - 1,400,000, is a unique platinum chronograph with a mother-of-pearl dial and eight diamond hour markers: Rolex Daytona Ref. 16516 from 1999. This is more than just an interesting watch, it's the stuff of legends.

The reference has never been seen in Rolex catalogs, but rumors about an exclusively commissioned set of four such watches, each of which is unique, kept driving fans of the biggest watch brand crazy. These watches were apparently made between 1998 and 1999, based on Zenith's El Primero movement.

The rumors were either unintentionally or possibly intentionally stoked by the Rolex CEO at the time, Patrick Heiniger, who was said to have made the occasional public appearance wearing a platinum Daytona with a mother-of-pearl dial. But as always, he categorically refused to make any comment, never mind disclosing information about Rolex watches.

It's funny, but these rumors just stayed rumors. Nothing was made concrete about the existence of these models, and the individual who commissioned them remains a mystery to this day. So official sources still claim that the first platinum Daytona only appeared in 2013, when the world's most sought-after chronograph marked its 50th anniversary.

The truth behind those rumors was only confirmed in 2018, when Sotheby's managed to track down and auction off a platinum Ref. 16516 Daytona from 1999 with a mother-of-pearl dial and a Zenith movement. The auction house also let collectors know that the set included models with dials made of white mother-of-pearl, black mother-of-pearl, lapis lazuli, and turquoise.

After that, the property sourcers at Sotheby's managed to repeat their feat — twice in 2020 and 2021. All sales went very well. The model with a dial made of lapis lazuli did particularly well, which sold for HKD 25,375,000 (USD 3.2 million). So you'd think that collectors would know more about the first platinum Daytonas with their unusual fabled dials by now, right? Not really!

Rolex knows how to keep secrets. But this time there's a chance to lift the veil. The organizers have promised to accompany lot no. 126 with the original certificate, where the provenance of the mythical set is detailed. What percentage of the final sales price do you think will be for that certificate?

Another timepiece that could potentially fetch a high final sales price at Sotheby's Important Watches May auctions in Geneva is an interior desk clock: the Cartier Paris Pendulette Mystérieuse from 1949. This is a unique clock of extraordinary beauty! Gold tubes stem from a solid agate base, curving into the shape of a heart.

They come together at the top as a mount to hang an improvised strawberry made out of red topazes. The strawberry is split around the middle by a rotating silver chapter ring. A rather long platinum pointer encrusted with diamonds points down to the hour on the rotating chapter ring. This masterpiece is estimated to fetch CHF 500,000 - 1,000,000.

And that's it! There are no other lots with million-mark estimates. The last clock is followed by five wonderful Patek Philippe Nautilus watches with various reference numbers, but the highest estimate among them is CHF 500,000. Oh well, the most established auction house's preparations for the Genevan auctions quite clearly didn't go as well as they could have. But then again, times are tough for everyone these days.

Credits provided by: www.sothebys.com, www.phillips.com, www.christies.com