Auctions 2023: Kings and Favorites

Which watches are already kings and which ones have the strongest chances of becoming favorites?

The modern auction world rests on three pillars. Two of them are perpetual calendar chronographs by Patek Philippe: Ref. 1518 and Ref. 2499. The third pillar is a chronograph by Rolex: the Oyster Perpetual Cosmograph Daytona.

There's a good reason why they've long upheld world records for the most expensive watches. Take the Winning Icons auction as an example, held on October 26, 2017 by Phillips in New York, where a Rolex “Paul Newman” Daytona chronograph Ref. 6239 went for USD 17,752,500.

A year earlier, at the Geneva Watch Auction: FOUR held by Phillips on November 12, 2016, steel perpetual calendar chronograph Patek Philippe Ref. 1518 went for CHF 11,002,000. The current record holder is Patek Philippe Grandmaster Chime Ref. 6300A-010, which sold for CHF 31,000,000 at the Christie's Only Watch charity auction on November 9, 2019.

But this is an exceptional example, seeing as it’s a unique piece, so it’d be unfair to compare its performance to serially produced pieces in any category. What makes Patek Philippe's Ref. 1518 interesting is how it arrived in 1941 and was succeeded by the perpetual calendar chronograph Ref. 2499.

 It wasn't a replacement as such, as Ref. 2499 was more of a sequel than a replacement for Ref. 1518, produced up to 1952. It's just such a meaningful model for the great watchmaker. Suffice to say that Ref. 1518 is actually the world’s first ever serially produced perpetual calendar chronograph. Patek’s first perpetual calendar wristwatch dates back to 1925.

From then on, its design came to be considered canonical: two rectangular disk displays for days of the week and the month just below the 12 o'clock mark, a round subdial for the date shared with the moon-phase display at 6 o'clock, a 30-minute chronograph counter at 3 o'clock and a running seconds subdial at 9 o'clock.

There have hardly been any changes. However, there are some details that reveal variations in this complicated watch’s design from 1925 to 1985. Why is Ref. 1518 so sought-after? There's a fairly simple explanation. 

The beginning of World War Two and the years of post-war destruction in particular reduced demand for complicated luxury watches to an all-time low, and a few hundred pieces were produced over ten years. The bulk of these pieces were lost forever and the ones that did survive are objects of desire for every self-respecting collector.

The last two generations and the current one have yet to fork out the kind of money being paid for Ref. 1518 and Ref. 2499 when it comes to Patek's iconic perpetual chronograph Ref. 3970 launched in 1986 or the Ref. 5270 introduced in 2011. "Yet" is the key word here.

Waiting for an Entourage

The rise of last year's surreal-looking Cartier Crash model launched in 1967 by Cartier Londres came completely out of the blue. Legend has it, the idea for its case was only conceived when a client dropped a typical Baignoire watch into the London boutique with a case which had been seriously damaged in a car crash.

The first models weren’t equipped with a quartz movement and used manual Jaeger-LeCoultre cal. 840 movements instead. Not only has this model regularly resurfaced at auctions held by Phillips in Geneva and New York, it's also been sold in Hong Kong. Moreover, their sale prices are steadily beginning to double estimates, realizing CHF 705,600.

Other iconic models which experienced predictable spikes in success last year include Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, as the world of watchmaking marked this timepiece's 50th anniversary.

In all honesty, the rare anniversary editions had been expected to do much better, although the majority of rare Royal Oaks were snatched up for prices just over the mark of CHF 1,000,000. This is precisely the reason why a staggering third of APRO lots weren't realized according to Sotheby’s. 

Owners preferred to pull them from the auction and wait for better days. This may well be the year when many try their luck. If you can't earn a tidy sum, it's possible to shield funds from inflation by investing in currently trending "full gold" and "rainbow" sport de luxe watches.

Seeing the high demand generated by Rolex watches with cases encrusted in multicolored precious stones, almost all the other major watch manufacturers began launching similar models: Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille, Piaget, Hublot and Jacob & Co to name a few. Precious stones also make a great investment in times of uncertainty.

Trends and Microbrands

The unusual growth stocks of independent microbrands is no real news. Unlike the giants, they don't pay heed to the nuanced demand of one market or the other. They just focus on producing unbelievably beautiful timepieces.

Independent heavyweights at auctions include François-Paul Journe, Richard Mille, Kari Voutilainen, Svend Andersen and Philippe Dufour. Other favorites are Bernhard Lederer, Vianney Halter, Laurent Ferrier, Roger W. Smith and Konstantin Chaykin.

One of the most ambitious up-and-coming watchmakers is Christopher Ward. The British watchmaking company was only established in 2004 to sell timepieces directly to the client. It became the first online-only watch retailer, where the consumer could discuss the design and the technology used to make each detail with the watchmaker.

Christopher Ward couldn't turn a profit for a long time however, as the brand set itself a very interesting goal of providing “the cheapest most expensive watches in the world”. 

It took another ten years later for Swiss watchmaking company Synergies Horlogères (SH) to get in touch with the brand and launch a rather tidy diving watch called Christopher Ward С60 Trident Pro 600, water-resistant to depths of 600m and priced around CHF 875.

However, this vertically integrated business strategy only got the ball rolling with a project to test out the brand's engineering and technological capabilities. Launching remarkable watches at such low prices didn't figure in production targets.

That didn't deter Christopher Ward from continuing to live and work according to the brand's principles, which would go on to unveil the most affordable Swiss-made mechanical chiming watch eight years after the merger with SH: C1 Bel Canto priced at USD 3,400.

This was when collectors all over the world really started sitting up and taking notice. The first limited 300-piece C1 Bel Canto series with an Azzurro sky-blue dial sold out online within eight hours.

Four days later, a green "Verde" dial version appeared on the website and sold out even faster — in three hours. The frenzy caused by the first C1 Bel Canto to resurface at auction will be no laughing matter. Is anyone still in doubt?

Christopher Ward also has other models which are no less ambitious. The watchmaker enlisted the help of Johannes Jahnke to create one of them, former Technical Director of the same Synergies Horlogères.

Jahnke developed the remarkable JJ01 jumping-hour module, designed to piggyback on a standard automatic ЕTA 2824 movement (or copies by Sellita or Soprod). The partners even released a few С1 Jumping Hour models over the last few years priced around CHF 1500.

By "few", we mean very few — no more than ten. Keep an eye out for these model names in auction catalogs. Christopher Ward also teamed up with the British Fears Watch Company a month ago for yet another version of the same "jump hour".

The price for Fears Christopher Ward: Alliance 01 is around GBP 3,300. A total of just fifty pieces are available exclusively for members of the Alliance of British Watch & Clockmakers. And they haven't even got enough to go around.

Christopher Ward's original idea isn't actually as funny or unsustainable as it may seem. After all, the same approach was taken by Maximilian Büsser, who presented the M.A.D.1 Red last year for members of "the Tribe", a club for the brand's owners.

The piece housing a Japanese Miyota automatic movement was priced at a mere CHF 3,125. A similar act of "pricing vandalism" was committed by Omega when the company launched a version of their iconic Speedmaster chronograph last year in collaboration with Swatch: Omega × Swatch Speedmaster MoonSwatch for CHF 250.

What do we see as a result? The name Christopher Ward has already made the shortlist of auction favorites, and it's practically impossible to buy one of his conceptually cheap watches at its original retail price. It's a paradox capable of getting the market for pre-owned watches fired up. Nevertheless, the trend is unmistakable.