March auctions as a barometer of the season ahead.

The March auctions were eagerly awaited by all participants on the pre-owned watch market as a barometer for the predominant mood on the market. Bidders weren't feeling very enthusiastic, and half-heartedly purchased watches. Upper estimates which were already very cautious were rarely exceeded. Perhaps Christie's auction house was right to give March a miss and begin in April instead?

Sotheby’s Goes First and Loses

Sotheby’s March auction results can only be described as underwhelming. And that goes for both Sotheby’s Fine Watches in New York which closed on March 12, and the Paris sales on March 28. To say that the mood among buyers wasn't very optimistic would be an understatement.

Only one of the top models offered at these auctions significantly exceeded its already rather modest estimate. And only a handful of lots significantly trumped their estimates in general. 

As expected, Richard Mille's RM30 Ti was the most expensive watch at the New York auctions: an automatic uncomplicated skeletonized watch in titanium with a date, power reserve indication, winding crown, a mainspring torque limiting crown, and a declutchable variable-geometry rotor.

The model was acquired a year and a half ago, clearly with the aim of making a return on investment. But the investment didn't pay off. The lot had been given a fairly high estimate by current standards at USD 150,000 - 250,000, but the final sales price was near the retail price at USD 203,200.

Another watch which sold for in and around its retail price (USD 107,950) was the white-gold quarter and hour striking A.  Lange & Söhne Zeitwerk Striking Time Ref. 145.029 from 2019.  

And that's not even that bad when you consider examples like H. Moser & Cie. Endeavour Tourbillon Concept from 2022 with a dial made of Vantablack — the darkest material on earth. This one sold for a mere USD 40,640, barely half its retail price.

Meanwhile, Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Concept Tourbillon Ref. 26630BC.GG.D326CR.01, developed in collaboration with jewelry designer Carolina Bucci, and IWC Ref. IW3770-01, acknowledged as one of the world's most complex "Grande Complication" watches,  were both withdrawn from the auctions altogether. Their owners weren't satisfied with the kind of money that was being offered for the watches.

If you think people in Europe are more passionate about watches today, think again. The top lot at Sotheby’s Fine Watches in Paris was a brand-new platinum perpetual calendar chronograph: Patek Philippe Ref. 5270P-014: a modern version of the iconic references 1518 and 2499 released last year.

It too was sold for a mere EUR 165,100. And that's barely 75 percent of its retail price! This sale was just as unsuccessful as this piece was a wonderful investment. Again, this goes to show that when the auctions are going through times of troubles, not only can you speculate on a bull market, you can also be bearish about watches of timeless value, and increase your collection without breaking the bank.

The second-best result was achieved by a famous platinum Jaeger-LeCoultre Gyrotourbillon 2 Ref. 233.64.20 from 2010, which raised EUR 120,650 (half its retail price). Only last year's platinum Rolex Cosmograph Daytona Ref. 116506 on a platinum bracelet with diamond indexes made a decent return on its investment when it secured third place, fetching EUR 139,700, which is around 40 percent up on the retail price.

Phillips Begins with a Relocation

Phillips auction house held two inaugural March auctions in Geneva and Hong Kong, but has kept both of them very low-key, without the usual press releases on the results. That makes sense though, there isn't much to brag about.

The top lot at Phillips Watches Online Auction: Geneva Sessions Spring 2024 (held from March 5-12) was a very rare platinum split-seconds chronometer wristwatch with a perpetual calendar: Patek Philippe Ref. 5951P-001 from 2015.

What makes it rare is that it has an uncharacteristically sporty style for a model in the "Grande Complication" category: a black dial, contrasting bright white counters and indications, and bright red chronograph hands. Its platinum case measuring 37 mm × 37 mm is polished, making the platinum indistinguishable from steel.

The watch houses an updated manually wound manufacture movement — cal.  CHR 27-525 PS Q — one of the thinnest split-seconds chronograph movements on the market. But despite all of these factors and the watch's initial retail price of around half a million euro, the model sold for CHF 304,800 (CHF 55,200 below its upper estimate).

You've got to admit that was a failed investment. But it was a different story for another sporty complicated watch that secured second place: the white-gold Patek Philippe Nautilus Perpetual Calendar Ref. 5740/1G from 2019. 

Its consignor must have been pleased when it went for CHF 203,200, which is around CHF 50,000 up on the initial retail price. But the prices that other interesting watches in the top-ten lots went for look more like the first model's disappointing result.

That also goes for the most interesting perpetual calendar with an innovative module: MB&F Legacy Machine Perpetual Calendar Ref. 03.R6.5226 in pink gold. It came third when it sold for CHF 139,700, which is around CHF 50,000 cheaper than the retail price.

The same can be said of the remarkable hour and decimal striking A.  Lange & Söhne Zeitwerk Decimal Strike Ref. 143.050, which came fourth and sold for CHF 107,950 — also down on its initial retail price.

Against the backdrop of the Geneva sales, the results of the Phillips Watches Online Auction: Hong Kong Sessions Spring 2024 held on March 19-26 look even more modest. Not one of the 152 lots achieved over CHF 100,000 at the Asian sales.

But one collector seems to have had a lucky day, and acquired two steel Patek Philippe watches — the Nautilus Annual Calendar Ref. 5726/1A-010 and Travel Time Chronograph Ref. 5990/1A-001 — as well as a platinum Rolex Cosmograph Daytona Ref. 116506 and white-gold De Bethune DB1, paying HKD 762,000 (around CHF 88,000) for each of these top watches.

Another bidder seems to have followed the top bidder's example, and bought three Patek Philippe Nautilus watches (Ref. 5711/1A-010, 5980/1A-001 and 5980R-001) as well as a yellow-gold Rolex Daytona with a deep emerald-green dial (Ref. 116508) — buying each of them for HKD 698,500 (around CHF 80,500).

The most influential auction house on today's pre-owned market devoted much more press attention to the relocation of their venue. Phillips have famously held their Geneva auctions at the suburban La Réserve Genève Hotel & Spa over the past few years (since May 2015 to be precise).

It's a prestigious and remarkable location between the city and the airport, but not a very convenient place for auctions. Oh, and the number of guests that can be accommodated at luxurious but small La Réserve is always limited.

That's why Phillips has relocated closer to the heart of the city — on the shores of Lake Geneva in the Hotel President Geneva (formerly Hotel President Wilson). So why now? The auction house has grown over the past nine years, auctioning off USD 1.3 billion worth of watches alone, and they began making major inroads into the jewelry market last November. So it's time to upscale.

The hotel's glorious pool terrace with an area spanning 500 square meters will provide the exhibition space for the most attractive watch and jewelry lots in the upcoming auctions.

And the move will be celebrated with an auction preview on May 8. The Geneva Watch Auction: XIX will be held in the Wilson Room at the new hotel over two sessions on May 11 and 12, immediately followed by the Geneva Jewels Auction: Two on May 13.

Single Rounds

The March warm-up sales where only a single model was listed were far more interesting. In New York on March 2, Phillips sold the unique F. P. Journe Élégante in a 48-mm titanium case made with Titalyt treatment. The auction was held for charity, and all the proceeds were donated to the Breast Cancer Research Foundation.

The uniqueness of the model, the name of its creator, and the serious cause to fund research into this common form of cancer helped the quartz watch in a case made of non-precious metal without any stone setting to raise a staggering USD 420,000. And that's a world record for a non-diamond-set quartz watch and all Élégantes.

Sotheby's single-piece auction, regarded to the Patek Philippe's Ref. 5650G, generated huge interest among collectors all over the world. The Aquanaut Travel Time "Advanced Research" with an Error Dial features a Pulsomax escapement made of a material called Silinvar, and a Spiromax balance spring. But this watch's most distinguishing feature is in fact the result of an impermissible error: the 53th minute marker is missing on the dial. 

But this watch's most distinguishing feature is in fact the result of an impermissible error: the 53th minute marker is missing on the dial. And fans of British watchmaking, the cradle of modern high horology, were stoked about the auction that offered the Roger W. Smith Series 1 special edition.

In 2023, Roger Smith began working on the unique red-gold Series 1 he said he would make for himself. But he decided to sell it this year and donate a portion of the proceeds to the Alliance of British Watch and Clock Makers, significantly helping this organization in doing so. The sales closed on the symbolic date of March 9, the day British Watchmakers' Day is marked in the UK.

By the way, a Series No. 1 model in a white-gold case was sold at an exclusive single-watch auction held by A Collected Man for a solid GBP 660,000 a year and a half ago. In order to participate in the auctions for the red-gold model, bidders had to pay a reserve price of GBP 297,500 (excluding VAT, which can be very steep in the UK, and import duties or VAT can vary depending on the buyer's domicile).

There were plenty of bidders who wished to acquire the watch Roger Smith made for himself. So what's the big deal? Demand for pieces by this watchmaker on the pre-owned watch market is growing rapidly.

Take Roger Smith's Pocket Watch No. 2 as an example, which Phillips auctioned off in New York for an eye-watering sum of USD 4,900,000 last year. However, we don't know how much Patek Philippe's Aquanaut Travel Time "Advanced Research" Ref. 5650G and Roger W. Smith's Series 1 sold for yet. These kinds of one-piece auctions can end up being a long story with many twists and turns.

Firstly, creators such as Patek Philippe and Roger W. Smith Ltd. can play a direct role in determining the successful bidder. Secondly, the winner needs to transfer their payment with all the taxes and premiums added on top within a fixed timeframe (usually 30 days from the receipt of an invoice).

Any breach of deadlines may result in disqualification. And finally, consignors can reserve the right to cancel auctions, and can refuse or revoke participation at their discretion. So we're still waiting to hear those results.

A Happy Ending?

Finally, we have some great news. The Only Watch auction will be back soon, and has been rescheduled for this spring. At least that's what its founder and director Luc Pettavino hopes.

As expected, the auction and charity for research to help children with Duchenne muscular dystrophy have undergone independent financial audits, which certified all their accounts and made the objective reasons behind all their spending transparent. They basically established that all funds go towards achieving the goals of the charity organization and auction.

Following the audit, organizers of the Only Watch auction have sent out invitations to potential participants. Mr. Pettavino is so confident he'll receive a positive response from participants that he's already planning to hold the auctions in Geneva this May.

His impatience is totally understandable: only holding a successful auction will finally put last year's scandalous cancellation to bed, when the lack of transparency raised questions over how funds were distributed. But is it a good idea to hold the auction at such short notice?

Only Watch could gain much more exposure by waiting until June for example, or even July, i.e. at the beginning of the summer off-season. And greater exposure means greater profits.

Credits taken from: www.phillips.com, www.sothebys.com, www.fpjourne.com, www.rwsmithwatches.com