Array of luxury at Sotheby's.

Sotheby's auction house is looking to overcome difficulties that the market is currently facing by applying a surefire tactic, placing bets on timeless value.

The Treasures of Time sale is set to take place on the morning of November 10, where the primary driving force will be two of the most expensive watch models, coveted by collectors around the world: Patek Philippe's Ref. 2499 and Ref. 1518.

Let's not forget that Ref. 1518 was the world's first perpetual calendar chronograph wristwatch produced in series. Introduced at the Swiss Watch Fair Basel in 1941, this model is proof of timeless value. It has stood the test of time, including history's turning points like World War Two. 

Taking a Valjoux chronograph ébauche as the base movement, the watchmakers at the grand maison added a calendar module by Victorin Piguet, which resulted in the stunning Caliber 13 130 Q. It was thin and surprisingly reliable.

The model was given a particularly chic design with a tachymeter scale along the flange of the dial and square pushers on the caseband. It was also very comfortable to wear, as the most complicated wristwatch in its day also happened to be one of the most comfortable.

There's a good reason why absolutely every watch expert still holds this model up as an exemplary balance between shape and functionality. Ref. 1518 watches were ordered by the biggest collectors back in the day, from the legendary Henry Graves Jr. to King Farouk of Egypt.

Even Sugar Ray Robinson owned one — the man regarded as the greatest pound-for-pound boxer of all time. Over the thirteen years that Ref. 1518 was in production, 281 pieces were made (21-22 annually). In total, 58 of these were housed in pink-gold cases, which collectors are most eager to hunt down these days.

Ref. 1518 was replaced by Ref. 2499 in 1950, although Patek Pihlippe continued to take orders for Ref. 1518 up until 1954. Initially, the only difference was a slightly larger case, up from 35 mm to 37.5 mm, accompanied by a bezel that was a little less subtle.

Further changes were later made to the numerals on the dial, and the chronograph pushers were made round, but that was about it. As they say, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Ref. 2499 continued to be produced up to 1985! That's a world record in terms of longevity for this class of watch.

It remained the most complicated watch in regular production for some time. But the series runs were extremely small. Only 349 pieces were made throughout its entire production life (about 10 annually). Ref. 2499 runs were divided into a total of four series.

And now Sotheby's is offering a "First Series" and "Third Series" Ref. 2499 at Treasures of Time, plus a "Second Series" at Important Watches: Part I, which is being held on the same day in Geneva. The rarest of them is the pink-gold "First Series" Ref. 2499 in a Wenger case from 1950 (the watches were only officially given a new reference number in 1951 when they went on sale).

According to the watchmaker's archives, only three known examples of these pink-gold rarities were housed in Wanger cases. But the present example is the only one to have ever resurfaced at an auction. The other two remain in private collections.

The rarity of the present example is underscored by the fact that Patek Philippe doesn't even have a "First Series" pink-gold Ref. 2499 in the watchmaker's Genevan museum. The last time this example in case no. 687'772 appeared at an auction, it was sold by Christie's in May 2012 for CHF 2,547,000.

The Swiss franc carried more weight twelve years ago. That's probably why the organizers have given the present lot a pre-sale estimate within the range of CHF 2,500,000 - 5,000,000. Another Patek Philippe Ref. 2499 piece has been consigned by an Asian collector for Important Watches: Part I. The model from 1954 with a yellow-gold case and bracelet belongs to the "Second Series".

Patek Philippe didn't equip these watches with yellow-gold bracelets. This personalized combination would have been supplied by the Italian retailer Gobi. And as one of only two known yellow-gold perpetual calendar chronograph wristwatches with moon phases and flat dial, this is a rare example.

It was offered for auction at Genevan sales held by Phillips in November three years ago, where it raised CHF 1,482,000. The organizers reckon that bidders will be willing to pay more for it now, so they've estimated it will go for CHF 2,000,000 - 4,000,000.

The third perpetual calendar chronograph Ref. 2499 was also made in 1954, but this one belongs to the next "Third Series". The most interesting thing about this example is its unusual black lacquer dial with Breguet numerals.

This is a unique piece, but collectors haven't given it a very warm reception. Some see it as an example of a client's extravagant requests, which Patek Phillip has been known to fulfill from time to time. At Christie's Geneva auctions in November 2010, this watch only raised CHF 579,000 (about USD 590,396).

Nevertheless, the organizers still believe that the piece has much greater potential, and have given it an estimate of CHF 1,000,000 - 3,000,000. Sotheby's have also managed to find a Patek Philippe Ref. 1518 in a pink-gold case for their Treasures of Time sale.

The model from 1948 belongs to the "Second Series" and has been fully restored by Patek Philippe with authenticity confirmed in the accompanying documents. Bearing this in mind, the lot has been given a cautious estimate of CHF 1,500,000 - 3,000,000.

The same upper estimate has been assigned to the Patek Philippe Ref. 1563: a unique split-seconds chronograph in a yellow-gold case that measures 35 mm. Only three known examples in the whole world share this reference number. One of them belonged to the jazz pianist and composer Duke Ellington, and it's now an exhibit that resides in the Patek Philippe Museum. The watchmaking maestro couldn't resist the elegance of this watch.

It's easy to explain why Ref. 1563 is so rare. The split-seconds chronograph is one of the most complicated mechanisms, second only to the minute repeater. That's why watches equipped with such chronographs are so expensive: this one would have originally retailed in Switzerland for around CHF 2000, which was a lot of money at the time.

Basically, this model didn't sell well in the difficult post-war year of 1947. This watch sat in the shop window for three years until it found a buyer. So Ref. 1563 was discontinued and involuntarily became a major rarity. The present example is also unique in its own right, given that its Breguet numerals set in hard enamel have added lume.

The caseback is also engraved in the name "L.  Estée" and inscribed with the initials "S.G.H.". This isn't the first time that the present example has been offered at an auction: Christie's sold it in Geneva in November 2013 for CHF 1,445,000. Will it sell for twice the price here? Why not? The organizers are confident that it will.

Moreover, the extremely rare Ref. 1563 split-seconds chronograph is a version of a much better known, treasured cousin: Ref. 1436. The inside of the case for the former model was even mistakenly stamped "Ref. 1436". Ref. 1436 differs from Ref. 1563 in terms of size: it's a more compact version at 33 mm in diameter, which is 2 mm smaller than the case for Ref. 1563.

During that period, people thought that the smaller the case, the slicker the watch. But both models still ran on the same manually wound movement: 13-130 R. The reason we're pointing this out is that Sotheby's is also offering a yellow-gold Patek Philippe Ref. 1436 from 1942 this November.

Its black enamel Breguet numerals and oversized registers make it a one-of-a-kind. The only thing is that it hasn't been very well preserved, which you can tell by the blotches on the dial. That's why its estimate isn't so high: CHF 400,000 - 800,000.

Patek Philippe's sixth model in the top-ten potentially most expensive lots at Sotheby’s Treasures of Time is a watch in the grand-complication class: Ref. 5016. This is a minute-repeating perpetual calendar with a tourbillon, and it even has a central retrograde hand and leap year indication.

The watch from 1993 is housed in a yellow-gold case that measures 36.8 mm in diameter. This model, which was launched in 1994 and produced until 2010, was considered Patek Philippe's most complicated watch. Only around 200 pieces were made.

In other words, this watch isn't so rare, but it's interesting from a historic point of view as one of the last small complicated models. After that, grand complication watches began to grow bigger. This is generally one of the most attractive models to invest in, when you consider the fact that quite a few of them were made for individual orders and are unique. 

There's a good reason why a unique steel version of Ref. 5016 sold for an eye-watering CHF 7,300,000 at the Only Watch Auction in November 2015. It held onto the title of most expensive wristwatch for some time. This specific model has no notable unique traits, which is why the organizers have assigned it an almost minimal estimate of CHF 300,000 - 500,000.

The only watchmaker who can really compete with Patek Philippe at the November auctions in Geneva is Saxony's A. Lange & Söhne. In any case, they round out the top-ten lots with the highest estimates at Treasures of Time. At any rate, it rounds out the top ten potentially most expensive lots.

These are two Tourbillon Pour le Mérite models: the Ref. 701.005 from 1996 in a 38.5 mm platinum case and the Ref. 701.011 from the same year in a rose-gold case. The estimate for these remarkable first wristwatches with a constant force module in the form of a chain-driven fusée is modestly estimated by the organizers at CHF 250,000 - 500,000 and CHF 150,000 - 300,000 respectively.

However, true collectors are aware of the great potential of this model, because it came out in a great variety.  The rarest is considered the white-gold Ref. 701.007 — only 19 pieces are believed to have been released, one of which is unique. At the Geneva auctions in May 2014, Christie's sold one of these pieces for CHF 437,000.

There were 24 pieces made in pink gold, which are referenced Ref. 701.011, and 50 platinum Ref. 701.005 pieces with two additional unique pieces. Finally, the most common version with 106 pieces is the Ref. 701.001/751.001 in yellow gold.

The pride of German watchmaking will be auctioned off: A. Lange & Söhne's Tourbograph "Pour le Mérite" Ref. 702.025F from 2007. It was the world's first first one-minute tourbillon to feature both a fusée-and-chain transmission and a split-seconds chronograph when it was launched as a limited edition of 101 pieces (51 in platinum and 50 in gold).

According to the organizers' calculations, this model is too new and not rare enough, so they've given it an estimate which is almost the same as its retail price: CHF 200,000 - 400,000.

Previously (part I)

Credits provided by: www.sothebys.com