The nine models with the best performance at last year's auctions.

Before the new auction season gets started, now is the perfect time to take a look at the performance at last year's auctions of specific models seen as the pillars of the entire pre-owned market. These are breadwinner models — the market's pillars. Our count identified nine. The performance of top watches on the pre-owned watch market in 2024 can be viewed in the table below.

The first column provides the model name, the second column gives its average price and the maximum price it achieved, the third column provides the number of pieces sold in 2024 and the number of units sold in 2023 for comparison, and the fourth and final column gives the year-over-year growth compared to 2023.

We've used some data from the EveryWatch database to make these calculations. We all know that mathematics and its offshoot statistics can be leveraged to prove or explain anything you can think of, right up to the existence of God and the devil. 

So, we could introduce more lively optimistic figures, which would indicate that the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for almost all the pillar models is positive, fluctuating at around +10%, while the average performance of breadwinner watches is growing within a wide range starting from 25% for the Rolex Submariner up to 804% for F. P.  Journe's Tourbillon Souverain.

But we decided to use the conventional formula to calculate the annual price growth: we took last year's price and subtracted the price realized in 2023, then the number we're left with is divided by the 2023 price, and finally, we multiply that by 100. We realize that the results looks startling, and if we factored in more years than just 2023 into the statistics, let's say, going back to 2005 or so, then the calculated growth would be a few hundred percent. But we see this as a more honest approach.

We don't just use a model's average price to determine that it's a pillar model, we also factor in the number of units sold. Hammer prices in the millions attract attention to watch auctions from the general public, provide great PR, and increase auction house revenues. But the leaders when it comes to sales volume are the lifeblood of the pre-owned watch market. Besides, they generate greater profits than the million-mark record-breakers. 

Leaders Remain the Same

Patek Philippe's two most iconic reference numbers raked in almost 25 million dollars for their consignors if you multiply the average price by units sold — the same amount earned by all the previous owners of Rolex Submariners. And that's not to mention the Rolex Cosmograph Daytonas: 1087 units were sold last year. Multiply that by their average price, and they raised a sales total of almost USD 130 million. 

So Patek's offerings are not exactly sensational in this context. But the undisputed leader in terms of average prices was, is, and we can safely say will remain Patek Philippe's Ref. 1518 perpetual calendar chronograph and its updated Ref. 2499 version.

The total number of these perpetual calendar chronograph models sold year-over-year remains roughly the same, given that there are objectively very few physical units in existence, and the ones that do change hands at auctions from time to time for whatever reason will be well looked after by their new owners.

And rightly so: you don't throw models around that have an average price close to USD 150 million and appreciate in value by a little over 20% every year — you don't take risks with them. The leader in terms of the number of units sold was of course Rolex. This makes perfect sense: the Submariner is the most affordable model in the Professional line of the Swiss watch brand with the largest market share, while the Daytona is the most sought-after. 

What's much more interesting is that two times more chronographs by Rolex were sold last year than Nautilus watches, even though the average price for a Daytona is just a little higher than Patek Philippe's most coveted model. Now if that's not a sensation, it's a phenomenon that deserves closer examination. After all, a Daytona can retail for less than half of last known retail price of a Nautilus.

Nautilus: A Decent Campaign

When it comes to Nautilus and the most sought-after Ref. 5711/1A, its glorious campaign in the depths of the pre-owned watch market is continuing to enjoy great success. It set yet another world record last November at the Children Action 2024 charity gala auction: a unique Ref. 5711/1500A featuring with impactful ethnic motifs inspired by New Zealand's Maori sold for CHF 6.7 million, the equivalent of USD 7.56 million.

Moreover, this Nautilus broke its own world record for the price of a simple steel automatic sports watch: USD 6,5 million, set four years ago. Granted, collectors and investors actually went and sold their own Nautiluses after being impressed by these specific achievements, which caused the dramatic spikes in demand, offers, and statistical performance.

But don't overlook the fact that the model isn't rare and was only discontinued in 2021, and it's already setting these impressive records. What will it achieve in another few years? We don't even need to make predictions here. Next year will be 2026, when this iconic watch will mark its 50th anniversary.

Patek Philippe is bound to launch a strictly limited edition for the anniversary, then one of the lucky owners or indeed the watchmaker will put the number one in the series up for auction. So we'll have yet another world record and a new wave of overwhelming love for the Nautilus.

Rehabilitation of the Royal Oak

Three years ago, when Audemars Piguet's iconic flagship Royal Oak model marked its 50th anniversary, the pre-owned watch market expected world records to be broken on price, fueled by over-enthusiastic newcomers investing cryptocurrency and the time-honored independent watchmaker getting unbelievably actively involved in the auctions. But none of this happened. 

The most complicated models and even the rarest prototypes sold struggled to make a million Swiss francs, which was met with some disappointment.  But the watchmaker didn't bat an eye at the lackluster buzz, and behaved like Rolex, who never comment on anything to anyone. And this was probably the right decision.

To use an analogy from chess, Audemars Piguet found itself in Zugzwang — a situation where any move will put you at a greater disadvantage. But by playing up indifference actually had the opposite effect, and increased trust in the brand among collectors.

That's because they felt reassured that the manufacturer headquartered in Le Brassus behaves in a dignified manner, no matter how the situation unfolds, and won't send secret undercover buyers into the auctions to maximize final sales prices for one watch or another.  Multiplying the average price by units sold, the combined total of all Royal Oak sales including the Offshore amounted to almost USD 39 million.

This is a fairly decent sum, almost exceeding the annual auction revenue generated by Patek Philippe's Nautilus (USD 37 million). Now is a good time to take a more detailed look at Audemars Piguet's flagship model, because the Royal Oak is a very broad concept. It has more variations than the entire range of models by Rolex.

It'd be very interesting to determine which one generates a bigger profit: the canonical simple automatic three-hand watch, the cool cutting-edge tourbillon, or could it be, say, the stylish ultra-thin perpetual calendar? The answer is actually obvious: there's more and more demand for the sporty perpetual calendar by Audemars Piguet.

According to data from EveryWatch, 385 models were sold in 2024 for an average price of USD 154,200. This is pretty good performance for a watch that retails for around USD 120,000 on average. 

Sovereign Tourbillon by Sovereign Watchmaker

The third pillar on the list is the F.P.  Journe's Tourbillon Souverain. Last year, 21 models were sold for an average price of USD 442,777 per unit, which falls short of results in 2023, when 28 pieces by the independent watchmaker François-Paul Journe were sold for an average of USD 650,000 per unit. All of this amounts to around 30% negative growth.

Does that mean that collectors and investors have suddenly got cold feet about the remarkable watches and their creator? Of course not! Quite the opposite! More than likely, it means that they've begun to cherish these watches even a little more than the timeless Ref. 1518 and Ref. 2499 watches by Patek Philippe.     

Houston, We Have a Problem!

On April 14, 1970, an oxygen tank exploded aboard the Apollo 13, and Command Module Pilot Jack Swigert uttered the phrase that has become so famous today. And the crew aboard that mission were saved in large part thanks to a mechanical Omega Speedmaster wristwatch. Firstly, the chronograph didn't let Swigert down.

And secondly, this was precisely what the astronauts used to accurately time the critical engine burn and safely re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Swatch Group CEO Nick Hayek Jr. has been responsible for Omega for a long time, but now it's his turn to utter Swigert's famous phrase, because the legendary Omega Speedmaster chronograph that conquered space and the Moon is losing its once strong position on the pre-owned watch market at an alarming rate.

This fact can also be explained by the brand's falling retail prices, the waning influence of Omega's owner Swatch Group, and the complete absence of any auction policy. In the meantime, Nick Hayek Jr. suddenly stepped in to save Breguet's reputation at the auctions last year. If he doesn't turn his attention to Omega this year, there are fears that its fall may continue.

This is already the third year that the iconic Cartier Tank (especially its London Crash version) has been making inroads to becoming one of the market's breadwinners. We'll put it this way: it's already on the doorstep, but still hasn't entered the elite club.  

Credits provided by: www.sothebys.com, www.phillips.com, www.christies.com